Difference between pages "Model" and "Mona Treinies (now Dodd)"

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<html><head></head><body>
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{{volunteerinfobox
 
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|firstname=Monica
<center><b>The following is based on a probabilistic model and should be taken as estimates only.</b></center><br>
+
|middlename=
Given <u><b>two</b></u> quantities the program will try and estimate the remaining numbers.<br>All values should be entered as numerical symbols only ("1234" instead of "1,234")<br>
+
|lastname=Treinies Dodd
<br>
+
|country=Ecuador
<form id="model" action="form_action.asp" name="model">
+
}}
<table border="0">
+
{{volunteer
 
+
|references=
<tr>
+
}}
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td width="100"></td>
 
<td colspan="4"><center><i><b>Actual Numbers</b> (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">FY2009</a>) <br><small>(as suggested starting points)</small></i></center></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Number of Volunteers in the past year...</b></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td width="50"><center>Worldwide</center></td>
 
<td width="50"><center>Africa</center></td>
 
<td width="50"><center>EMA</center></td>
 
<td width="50"><center>IMA</center></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td><i>Entered Service</i></td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="r" value="" /></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>Finished Service (COS)</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="s" value="" /></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>Early Terminated (ET)</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="e" value="" /></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>1155</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>406</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>382</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>367</i></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>Currently Serving</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="c" value="" /></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>TOTAL served any part of year</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="n" value="" /></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>11549</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>4365</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>3494</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>3690</i></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Rate of Early Termination:</b></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>Cohort Method</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="p" value="" />%</td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>Annual Method</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="a" value="" />%</td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>10.0%</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>9.3%</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>10.9%</i></td>
 
<td align="right"><i>9.9%</i></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>Volunteer-Year Method</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="v" value="" /></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Statistics:</b></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
<tr>
 
<td>Average length of service (months)</td>
 
<td><input type="text" name="L" value="" /></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
<td></td>
 
</tr>
 
 
 
</table>
 
<br><br>
 
<center><input type="button" name="calc" value="Calculate" onclick=calcForm()>
 
<input type="button" value="Clear" onClick="this.form.reset()" />  </center>
 
</form>
 
 
 
<br>
 
<b>Definitions:</b><br>
 
<br>
 
<table border="1" width=100%>
 
<tr>
 
<td WIDTH="200"><b>Entered Service</b></td>
 
<td>Number of volunteers who entered service within the past year</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Finished Service (COS)</b></td>
 
<td>Number of volunteers who successfully completed a full service (COS) within the past year</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Early Terminated (ET)</b></td>
 
<td>Number of volunteers who early terminated their service within the past year. <i><small>[FY2009 Actual value: 1,155 (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Currently Serving</b></td>
 
<td>The average number of currently serving volunteers and trainees at any moment in time. <i><small>[26May2010 Actual value: 7,340 (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/PCVStats26May2010.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>TOTAL served any part of year</b></td>
 
<td>The number of volunteers and trainees that served any portion of the year under study <i><small>[FY2009 Actual Value: 11,549 (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Cohort Method</b></td>
 
<td><i>("Out of 100")</i> Equivalent to the probability of a randomly selected volunteer Early Terminating sometime within their service.</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Annual Method</b></td>
 
<td><i>(current method used by Peace Corps)</i> The number of PCVs/Ts who separated from the Peace Corps during the fiscal year divided by the total number of trainees and volunteers who served at any time during the fiscal year. (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/Early_Termination">Ref.</a>)<i><small>
 
[FY2009 Actual Value: 10.0% (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/images/FY2009ETdatasummary.pdf">Ref.</a>)]</small></i></td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Volunteer-Year Method<br><i>(as decimal)</i></b></td>
 
<td>The number of ET's by an average volunteer during one year of service. Since most volunteers successfully complete their service, which is longer than one year, this number would be a "fraction of an ET". If the V-Year ET Rate was 0.20 (per year) we would expect about 2 volunteers out of 10 to ET per year, or about 1 volunteer out of 10 in a six-month period. (<a href="http://peacecorpswiki.org/Early_Termination">Ref.</a>)</td>
 
</tr>
 
<tr>
 
<td><b>Average length of service<br><i>(months)</i></b></td>
 
<td>Average length of service among all volunteers (in months)</td>
 
</tr>
 
</table>
 
<br>
 
Note: [TOTAL served any part of year] = [Finished Service (COS)] + [Early Terminated (ET)] + [Currently Serving]<br>
 
The volunteers who [Entered Service] are already counted in one of three categories as during that year they have either COSed, ETed, or are still currently serving.
 
<br>
 
<br>
 
<i>The above probabilistic model of Peace Corps was developed by Michael Sheppard (RPCV / The Gambia), and it should be taken as an estimate only</i>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
<script language="JavaScript">
 
 
 
function calcForm() {
 
  var elements = document.model.elements;
 
 
 
  //Convert rates to decimals
 
  if (elements[5].value!="") {
 
  elements[5].value=1.0*elements[5].value/100;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[6].value!="") {
 
  elements[6].value=1.0*elements[6].value/100;
 
  }
 
  // v is decimal, by definition; while p and a are percentages
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  //Compute all variables possible by continuously looping through the formulas
 
  var ind=1;
 
  while (ind==1) {
 
  //Initialize to zero, and set equal to one if any new variables are computed
 
  ind=0;
 
 
 
  //Order of priority, first solve for a,p,v if known
 
 
 
  //Equation : 26a=9ap+8p  (a 6, p 5)
 
  //Unknown  : a (6)
 
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[5].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[6].value = (8.0*elements[5].value) / (26.0 - (9.0*elements[5].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : 26a=9ap+8p  (a 6, p 5)
 
  //Unknown  : p (5)
 
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[5].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[5].value = (26.0*elements[6].value) / (8.0 + (9.0*elements[6].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : 18v=9av+26a (a 6 , v 7)
 
  //Unknown  : a (6)
 
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[7].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[6].value = (18.0*elements[7].value) / (26.0 + (9.0*elements[7].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : 18v=9av+26a (a 6 , v 7)
 
  //Unknown  : v (7)
 
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[7].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[7].value = (26.0*elements[6].value) / (18.0 - (9.0*elements[6].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : 18v=9pv+8p (v 7, p 5)
 
  //Unknown  : v (7)
 
  if (elements[5].value!="" && elements[7].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[7].value = (8.0*elements[5].value) / (18.0 - (9.0*elements[5].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : 18v=9pv+8p (v 7, p 5)
 
  //Unknown  : p (5)
 
  if (elements[5].value=="" && elements[7].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[5].value = (18.0*elements[7].value) / (8.0 - (9.0*elements[7].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
 
 
  //IF P=0 (OR EQUIVALENT) LOOP THROUGH NON-DIVISION ESTIMATION
 
  if (elements[5].value!="" && 1.0*elements[5].value==0) {
 
  //If exist and is zero
 
  document.model.elements[2].value = 0;
 
  var ind2=1;
 
  while (ind2==1) {
 
  //Initialize to zero, and set equal to one if any new variables are computed
 
  ind2=0;
 
  if (elements[3].value=="" && elements[4].value!="") {
 
    document.model.elements[3].value = 18.0*elements[4].value / 26;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[3].value!="" && elements[4].value=="") {
 
    document.model.elements[4].value = 26.0*elements[3].value / 18;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[4].value!="") {
 
    document.model.elements[0].value = 8.0*elements[4].value / 26;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[4].value=="") {
 
    document.model.elements[4].value = 26.0*elements[0].value / 8;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[3].value!="") {
 
    document.model.elements[0].value =  8.0*elements[3].value / 18;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[3].value=="") {
 
    document.model.elements[3].value = 18.0*elements[0].value / 8;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[1].value!="") {
 
    document.model.elements[0].value =  elements[1].value;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[1].value=="") {
 
    document.model.elements[1].value = elements[0].value;
 
    ind2=1;
 
  }
 
  } //While
 
  } //If for zero
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
  //Equation : a*n=e (6,4,2)
 
  //Unknown  : a (6)
 
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[4].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[6].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[4].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : a*n=e (6,4,2)
 
  //Unknown  : n (4)
 
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[4].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[4].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[6].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : a*n=e (6,4,2)
 
  //Unknown  : e (2)
 
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[4].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[6].value) * (1.0*elements[4].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : r*p=e (0,5,2)
 
  //Unknown  : r (0)
 
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[5].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : r*p=e (0,5,2)
 
  //Unknown  : p (5)
 
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[5].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[5].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[0].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : r*p=e (0,5,2)
 
  //Unknown  : e (2)
 
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) * (1.0*elements[5].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : c*v=e (3,7,2)
 
  //Unknown  : c (3)
 
  if (elements[3].value=="" && elements[7].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[3].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[7].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : c*v=e (3,7,2)
 
  //Unknown  : v (7)
 
  if (elements[3].value!="" && elements[7].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[7].value = (1.0*elements[2].value) / (1.0*elements[3].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : c*v=e (3,7,2)
 
  //Unknown  : e (2)
 
  if (elements[3].value!="" && elements[7].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[3].value) * (1.0*elements[7].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : n=r+c (4,0,3)
 
  //Unknown  : n (4)
 
  if (elements[4].value=="" && elements[0].value!="" && elements[3].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[4].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) + (1.0*elements[3].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : n=r+c (4,0,3)
 
  //Unknown  : r (0)
 
  if (elements[4].value!="" && elements[0].value=="" && elements[3].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[4].value) - (1.0*elements[3].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : n=r+c (4,0,3)
 
  //Unknown  : c (3)
 
  if (elements[4].value!="" && elements[0].value!="" && elements[3].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[3].value = (1.0*elements[4].value) - (1.0*elements[0].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : r=s+e (0,1,2)
 
  //Unknown  : r (0)
 
  if (elements[0].value=="" && elements[1].value!="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[1].value) + (1.0*elements[2].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : r=s+e (0,1,2)
 
  //Unknown  : s (1)
 
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[1].value=="" && elements[2].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[1].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) - (1.0*elements[2].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : r=s+e (0,1,2)
 
  //Unknown  : e (2)
 
  if (elements[0].value!="" && elements[1].value!="" && elements[2].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[2].value = (1.0*elements[0].value) - (1.0*elements[1].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : 2L+27p=54 (8,5)
 
  //Unknown  : L (8)
 
  if (elements[8].value=="" && elements[5].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[8].value = (54.0 - (27.0*elements[5].value)) / 2.0;
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : 2L+27p=54 (8,5)
 
  //Unknown  : p (5)
 
  if (elements[8].value!="" && elements[5].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[5].value = (54.0 - (2.0*elements[8].value)) / 27.0;
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : (1/a)=(1/p)+(1/v)  (6 5 7)
 
  //Unknown  : a (6)
 
  if (elements[6].value=="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[7].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[6].value = 1 / ((1/(1.0*elements[5].value)) + (1/(1.0*elements[7].value)));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : (1/a)=(1/p)+(1/v)  (6 5 7)
 
  //Unknown  : p (5)
 
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[5].value=="" && elements[7].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[5].value = 1 / ((1/(1.0*elements[6].value)) - (1/(1.0*elements[7].value)));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : (1/a)=(1/p)+(1/v)  (6 5 7)
 
  //Unknown  : v (7)
 
  if (elements[6].value!="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[7].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[7].value = 1 / ((1/(1.0*elements[6].value)) - (1/(1.0*elements[5].value)));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : s=(1-p)*r (1 5 0)
 
  //Unknown  : s (1)
 
  if (elements[1].value=="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[0].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[1].value=(1-(1.0*elements[5].value))*(1.0*elements[0].value);
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : s=(1-p)*r (1 5 0)
 
  //Unknown  : p (5)
 
  if (elements[1].value!="" && elements[5].value=="" && elements[0].value!="") {
 
  document.model.elements[5]=1-((1.0*elements[1].value)/(1.0*elements[0].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  //Equation : s=(1-p)*r (1 5 0)
 
  //Unknown  : r (0)
 
  if (elements[1].value!="" && elements[5].value!="" && elements[0].value=="") {
 
  document.model.elements[0].value = (1.0*elements[1].value) / (1-(1.0*elements[5].value));
 
  ind=1;
 
  }
 
  } // While loop
 
 
 
//Now that while loop is completed format all answers
 
if (elements[0].value!="")  document.model.elements[0].value=Math.round(elements[0].value);
 
if (elements[1].value!="")  document.model.elements[1].value=Math.round(elements[1].value);
 
if (elements[2].value!="")  document.model.elements[2].value=Math.round(elements[2].value);
 
if (elements[3].value!="")  document.model.elements[3].value=Math.round(elements[3].value);
 
if (elements[4].value!="")  document.model.elements[4].value=Math.round(elements[4].value);
 
if (elements[5].value!="")  document.model.elements[5].value=Math.round(1000*elements[5].value)/10;
 
if (elements[6].value!="")  document.model.elements[6].value=Math.round(1000*elements[6].value)/10;
 
if (elements[7].value!="")  document.model.elements[7].value=Math.round(100*elements[7].value)/100;
 
if (elements[8].value!="")  document.model.elements[8].value=Math.round(10*elements[8].value)/10;
 
 
 
}
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
</script>
 
 
 
 
 
</body></html>
 
 
 
 
 
[[Category:resources]]
 

Revision as of 18:15, 23 April 2009



{{#if:Monica|Firstname::Monica|}} {{#if:|Middlename::|}} {{#if:Treinies Dodd|Lastname::Treinies Dodd|}}{{#if:Ecuador||}}

{{#if:|
{{{flickr}}}|}}{{#if:|
[[Image:{{{image}}}|250px]]|}}

Country Served in::Ecuador
[[:category:Ecuador_volunteers_{{{yearservicestarted}}}|Years:]]|}} [[Started service in::{{{yearservicestarted}}}]]|}}{{#if:|-|}}{{#if:|[[Ended service in::{{{yearserviceended}}}]]|}}
Group Code|}} ,|x|Group code was::x}}
Site(s)|}} ,|x|Name of community was::x}}{{#arraymap:|,|x|, Name of community was::x}}{{#arraymap:|,|x|, Name of community was::x}}
Region(s)|}} ,|x|Name of region was::x}}{{#arraymap:|,|x|, Name of region was::x}}{{#arraymap:|,|x|,Name of region was::x}}
Program(s)|}} [[Served in sector::{{{program}}}]]|}}{{#if:|,[[Served in sector::{{{program2}}}]]|}}{{#if:|,[[Served in sector::{{{program3}}}]]|}}
Assignment(s)|}} [[Primary assignment was::{{{assignment01}}}]]|}}{{#if:|,[[Primary assignment was::{{{assignment02}}}]]|}}{{#if:|,[[Primary assignment was::{{{assignment03}}}]]|}}
From US state|}} ,|x|Is from state::x}}
From US town/city|}} ,|x|Is from town or city::x}}
{{#if:|Volunteer name was::Monica Treinies Dodd|}} {{#if:|[[:category:Ecuador_volunteers_{{{yearservicestarted}}}|started]] in Ecuador {{{yearservicestarted}}}|}}
{{#if:|{{#ask:Served in::Ecuador[[Started service in::{{{yearservicestarted}}}]]|format=list|limit=15}}|}}
{{#if:|Region: [[{{{region}}}]]|}}
{{#if:|{{#ask:Served in::Ecuador[[Name of region was::{{{region}}}]]|format=list|limit=15}}|}}
{{#if:|Region: [[{{{region2}}}]]|}}
{{#if:|{{#ask:Served in::Ecuador[[Name of region was::{{{region2}}}]]|format=list|limit=15}}|}}
{{#if:|{{{program}}} in [[:Category:Ecuador_{{{program}}}|Ecuador]]: |}}{{#ifexist:|[[Image:{{{program}}}.gif|25px]]|}}
{{#if:|{{#ask:[[Served in sector::{{{program}}}]]Served in::Ecuador|format=list|limit=10}}|}}
{{#if:|{{{program2}}} in [[:Category:Ecuador_{{{program2}}}|Ecuador]]: |}}{{#ifexist:|[[Image:{{{program2}}}.gif|25px]]|}}
{{#if:|{{#ask:[[Served in sector::{{{program2}}}]]Served in::Ecuador|format=list|limit=10}}|}}
Other Volunteers who served in Ecuador{{#if:Ecuador|:|}}
{{#ask:Served in::Ecuador|format=list|limit=15}}
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Description of Service|}} ,|x|Has DOS::x}}
Lessons Learned from Service|}} ,|x|Has Lessons Learned::x}}
About Mona Treinies (now Dodd)}} ,|x|Has about::x}}
References/External Links|}} ,|x|Has references::x}}
Facebook URL|}} ,|x|Has Facebook::x}}
Linkin URL|}} ,|x|Has Linkedin::x}}