Model

From Peace Corps Wiki

(Difference between revisions)
Jump to: navigation, search
 
(7 intermediate revisions not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
-
<addhtml><html><head></head><body>
+
<html><head></head><body>
<center><b>The following is based on a probabilistic model and should be taken as estimates only.</b></center><br>
<center><b>The following is based on a probabilistic model and should be taken as estimates only.</b></center><br>
-
Given at least <b>two</b> quantities the program will try and estimate the remaining numbers.<br>All values should be entered as numerical symbols only ("1234" instead of "1,234")<br>
+
Given <u><b>two</b></u> quantities the program will try and estimate the remaining numbers.<br>All values should be entered as numerical symbols only ("1234" instead of "1,234")<br>
<br>
<br>
<form id="model" action="form_action.asp" name="model">
<form id="model" action="form_action.asp" name="model">
Line 26: Line 26:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp <i>Entered Service</i></td>
+
<td><i>Entered Service</i></td>
<td><input type="text" name="r" value="" /></td>
<td><input type="text" name="r" value="" /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 36: Line 36:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Finished Service (COS)</td>
+
<td>Finished Service (COS)</td>
<td><input type="text" name="s" value="" /></td>
<td><input type="text" name="s" value="" /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 46: Line 46:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Early Terminated (ET)</td>
+
<td>Early Terminated (ET)</td>
<td><input type="text" name="e" value="" /></td>
<td><input type="text" name="e" value="" /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 56: Line 56:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Currently Serving</td>
+
<td>Currently Serving</td>
<td><input type="text" name="c" value="" /></td>
<td><input type="text" name="c" value="" /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 66: Line 66:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp TOTAL served any part of year</td>
+
<td>TOTAL served any part of year</td>
<td><input type="text" name="n" value="" /></td>
<td><input type="text" name="n" value="" /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 86: Line 86:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Cohort Method</td>
+
<td>Cohort Method</td>
<td><input type="text" name="p" value="" />%</td>
<td><input type="text" name="p" value="" />%</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 96: Line 96:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Annual Method</td>
+
<td>Annual Method</td>
<td><input type="text" name="a" value="" />%</td>
<td><input type="text" name="a" value="" />%</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 106: Line 106:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Volunteer-Year Method</td>
+
<td>Volunteer-Year Method</td>
<td><input type="text" name="v" value="" /></td>
<td><input type="text" name="v" value="" /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 126: Line 126:
<tr>
<tr>
-
<td>&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Average length of service (months)</td>
+
<td>Average length of service (months)</td>
<td><input type="text" name="L" value="" /></td>
<td><input type="text" name="L" value="" /></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
Line 193: Line 193:
-
<SCRIPT language = JavaScript>
 
 +
<script language="JavaScript">
function calcForm() {
function calcForm() {
Line 460: Line 460:
-
</body></html></addhtml>
+
</body></html>
 +
 
 +
 
 +
[[Category:resources]]

Latest revision as of 20:48, 3 November 2010

The following is based on a probabilistic model and should be taken as estimates only.

Given two quantities the program will try and estimate the remaining numbers.
All values should be entered as numerical symbols only ("1234" instead of "1,234")

Actual Numbers (FY2009)
(as suggested starting points)
Number of Volunteers in the past year...
Worldwide
Africa
EMA
IMA
Entered Service
Finished Service (COS)
Early Terminated (ET) 1155 406 382 367
Currently Serving
TOTAL served any part of year 11549 4365 3494 3690
Rate of Early Termination:
Cohort Method %
Annual Method % 10.0% 9.3% 10.9% 9.9%
Volunteer-Year Method
Statistics:
Average length of service (months)



Definitions:

Entered Service Number of volunteers who entered service within the past year
Finished Service (COS) Number of volunteers who successfully completed a full service (COS) within the past year
Early Terminated (ET) Number of volunteers who early terminated their service within the past year. [FY2009 Actual value: 1,155 (Ref.)]
Currently Serving The average number of currently serving volunteers and trainees at any moment in time. [26May2010 Actual value: 7,340 (Ref.)]
TOTAL served any part of year The number of volunteers and trainees that served any portion of the year under study [FY2009 Actual Value: 11,549 (Ref.)]
Cohort Method ("Out of 100") Equivalent to the probability of a randomly selected volunteer Early Terminating sometime within their service.
Annual Method (current method used by Peace Corps) The number of PCVs/Ts who separated from the Peace Corps during the fiscal year divided by the total number of trainees and volunteers who served at any time during the fiscal year. (Ref.) [FY2009 Actual Value: 10.0% (Ref.)]
Volunteer-Year Method
(as decimal)
The number of ET's by an average volunteer during one year of service. Since most volunteers successfully complete their service, which is longer than one year, this number would be a "fraction of an ET". If the V-Year ET Rate was 0.20 (per year) we would expect about 2 volunteers out of 10 to ET per year, or about 1 volunteer out of 10 in a six-month period. (Ref.)
Average length of service
(months)
Average length of service among all volunteers (in months)

Note: [TOTAL served any part of year] = [Finished Service (COS)] + [Early Terminated (ET)] + [Currently Serving]
The volunteers who [Entered Service] are already counted in one of three categories as during that year they have either COSed, ETed, or are still currently serving.

The above probabilistic model of Peace Corps was developed by Michael Sheppard (RPCV / The Gambia), and it should be taken as an estimate only

Personal tools
Namespaces
Variants
Actions
Tell Your Friends
Navigation
Peace Corps News
Timelines
Country Information
Groups
Help
About
Toolbox